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FUTURE MOBILITY DEVELOPMENT IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT
Authors: Melichar Vlastimil | Salava Daniel | Chmelař Martin
Year: 2005
Type of publication: článek v odborném periodiku
Name of source: Scientific Papers of the University of Pardubice, Series B, The Jan Perner Transport Faculty
Publisher name: Univerzita Pardubice
Place: Pardubice
Page from-to: 89 - 100
Titles:
Language Name Abstract Keywords
cze Vývoj budoucí mobility v osobní dopravě Tento článek popisuje základní faktory vývoje a modelování budoucí mobility v osobní dopravě. Modely vývoje mobility jsou omezeny dvěma základními faktory, které reprezentuje rozpočet cestovní doby a peněžní rozpočet cestování. Model a scénář vývoje celkové mobility je funkcí fixního peněžního rozpočtu cestování a rozpočtu cestovní doby. Při tvorbě modelu a scénáře vývoje budoucí mobility v jednotlivých dopravních oborech se vycházelo z podílů jednotlivých dopravních oborů a ze čtyř omezujících faktorů. Tyto faktory jsou fixní rozpočet cestovní doby, závislost na cestě, vzorky záboru půdy a rovnice rovnováhy celkové dopravní intenzity
eng FUTURE MOBILITY DEVELOPMENT IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT This article describes basic factors of development and modelling of future mobility in passenger transport. Mobility development models are constrained by two basic factors, which represent travel time budget and travel money budget. Model and scenario of total mobility development is function of fixed travel money budget and travel time budget. By creation of model and future mobility development scenario in particular transport modes, we work on determination of particular transport mode shares and on four constraining factors. These factors are fixed travel time budget, path dependence, urban land-use patterns and balancing equation of total traffic volume. By model construction we examine at first two budget constraints of passenger ? travel time budget and travel money budget, that are core elements of model methods. In further sequence we estimate future demand for services, that are offered by state, it means total mobility. Then we estimate share of offered mobility for each main mode of motorized transport (in CR conditions we speak about bus, railway and individual car passenger transport). These estimations are conducted overall for whole country or region and there are made scenario sensitivities form changes of the most important or uncertain presumptions. Generally mobility development models are projected to make possible formularization e.g. aggregate (regional or national) and long-term scenario. In essence we work on transport planning tradition and model explains, how passengers can select particular transport modes by satisfying their demand for mobility (term ?mobility? used in model represents traffic volume measured by personal kilometres). But this model requires aggregated data. The aim of this model is not calculation of detailed estimations of travel distances and vehicles speeds, but rather total mobility prediction and prediction of offered share of each transport mode (so called modal split) within state and in aggregated regions i Travel Budget;Travel Time Budget;Travel Money Budget;Mobility Model; Model and Scenario of Transport Modes

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